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Model

Catching up after an outage

The utilization target of a system that recovers by replay is set by its recovery budget, not by its latency budget.

Maximum throughput
the system's maximum throughput
Arrival rate
normal arrival rate
Outage
how long the outage lasted

Recurring principle: Queues explode near full load

How it behaves

One input on the horizontal axis, the others held fixed.

Data table
Catch-up time as a multiple of the outage, by utilization
Utilization a/MCatch-up time ÷ outage
0.050.053×
0.0610.065×
0.0730.078×
0.0840.091×
0.0950.105×
0.1060.119×
0.1170.133×
0.1290.148×
0.140.163×
0.1510.178×
0.1630.194×
0.1740.21×
0.1850.227×
0.1960.244×
0.2070.262×
0.2190.28×
0.230.299×
0.2410.318×
0.2530.338×
0.2640.358×
0.2750.379×
0.2860.401×
0.2970.423×
0.3090.447×
0.320.471×
0.3310.495×
0.3420.521×
0.3540.547×
0.3650.575×
0.3760.603×
0.3870.633×
0.3990.663×
0.410.695×
0.4210.728×
0.4320.762×
0.4440.798×
0.4550.835×
0.4660.874×
0.4770.914×
0.4890.956×
0.51×
0.5111.05×
0.5221.09×
0.5341.14×
0.5451.2×
0.5561.25×
0.5681.31×
0.5791.37×
0.591.44×
0.6011.51×
0.6121.58×
0.6241.66×
0.6351.74×
0.6461.83×
0.6571.92×
0.6692.02×
0.682.12×
0.6912.24×
0.7032.36×
0.7142.49×
0.7252.64×
0.7362.79×
0.7482.96×
0.7593.15×
0.773.35×
0.7813.57×
0.7923.82×
0.8044.1×
0.8154.41×
0.8264.76×
0.8375.15×
0.8495.61×
0.866.14×
0.8716.77×
0.8827.51×
0.8948.41×
0.9059.53×
0.91610.9×
0.92712.8×
0.93915.3×
0.9519×

Worked examples, recomputed

Every number the mechanisms quote for this relationship is recomputed from it, so none of them disagrees with it.

Where it appears

Each mechanism states it in its own names. The general symbol each name stands for is shown with it.