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Model

Buffer survival under overload

The number that matters is not the buffer's size in bytes but its capacity in seconds.

Capacity
how much the buffer holds (events)
Arrival rate
how much work comes in per second
Service rate
how much work the consumer can finish per second
Backlog
work waiting after t seconds of overload

Recurring principle: Fixed capacity meets growth

How it behaves

One input on the horizontal axis, the others held fixed.

600,000 events6,000,000 events
Data table
How long a buffer lasts, by how far arrivals outrun service
Overload λ − μ (events per second)seriesSurvival time
10600,000 events60,000 s
11.2600,000 events53,500 s
12.6600,000 events47,700 s
14.1600,000 events42,500 s
15.8600,000 events37,900 s
17.8600,000 events33,700 s
20600,000 events30,100 s
22.4600,000 events26,800 s
25.1600,000 events23,900 s
28.2600,000 events21,300 s
31.6600,000 events19,000 s
35.5600,000 events16,900 s
39.8600,000 events15,100 s
44.7600,000 events13,400 s
50.1600,000 events12,000 s
56.2600,000 events10,700 s
63.1600,000 events9,510 s
70.8600,000 events8,480 s
79.4600,000 events7,550 s
89.1600,000 events6,730 s
100600,000 events6,000 s
112600,000 events5,350 s
126600,000 events4,770 s
141600,000 events4,250 s
158600,000 events3,790 s
178600,000 events3,370 s
200600,000 events3,010 s
224600,000 events2,680 s
251600,000 events2,390 s
282600,000 events2,130 s
316600,000 events1,900 s
355600,000 events1,690 s
398600,000 events1,510 s
447600,000 events1,340 s
501600,000 events1,200 s
562600,000 events1,070 s
631600,000 events951 s
708600,000 events848 s
794600,000 events755 s
891600,000 events673 s
1,000600,000 events600 s
1,120600,000 events535 s
1,260600,000 events477 s
1,410600,000 events425 s
1,580600,000 events379 s
1,780600,000 events337 s
2,000600,000 events301 s
2,240600,000 events268 s
2,510600,000 events239 s
2,820600,000 events213 s
3,160600,000 events190 s
3,550600,000 events169 s
3,980600,000 events151 s
4,470600,000 events134 s
5,010600,000 events120 s
5,620600,000 events107 s
6,310600,000 events95.1 s
7,080600,000 events84.8 s
7,940600,000 events75.5 s
8,910600,000 events67.3 s
10K600,000 events60 s
11.2K600,000 events53.5 s
12.6K600,000 events47.7 s
14.1K600,000 events42.5 s
15.8K600,000 events37.9 s
17.8K600,000 events33.7 s
20K600,000 events30.1 s
22.4K600,000 events26.8 s
25.1K600,000 events23.9 s
28.2K600,000 events21.3 s
31.6K600,000 events19 s
35.5K600,000 events16.9 s
39.8K600,000 events15.1 s
44.7K600,000 events13.4 s
50.1K600,000 events12 s
56.2K600,000 events10.7 s
63.1K600,000 events9.51 s
70.8K600,000 events8.48 s
79.4K600,000 events7.55 s
89.1K600,000 events6.73 s
100K600,000 events6 s
106,000,000 events600,000 s
11.26,000,000 events535,000 s
12.66,000,000 events477,000 s
14.16,000,000 events425,000 s
15.86,000,000 events379,000 s
17.86,000,000 events337,000 s
206,000,000 events301,000 s
22.46,000,000 events268,000 s
25.16,000,000 events239,000 s
28.26,000,000 events213,000 s
31.66,000,000 events190,000 s
35.56,000,000 events169,000 s
39.86,000,000 events151,000 s
44.76,000,000 events134,000 s
50.16,000,000 events120,000 s
56.26,000,000 events107,000 s
63.16,000,000 events95,100 s
70.86,000,000 events84,800 s
79.46,000,000 events75,500 s
89.16,000,000 events67,300 s
1006,000,000 events60,000 s
1126,000,000 events53,500 s
1266,000,000 events47,700 s
1416,000,000 events42,500 s
1586,000,000 events37,900 s
1786,000,000 events33,700 s
2006,000,000 events30,100 s
2246,000,000 events26,800 s
2516,000,000 events23,900 s
2826,000,000 events21,300 s
3166,000,000 events19,000 s
3556,000,000 events16,900 s
3986,000,000 events15,100 s
4476,000,000 events13,400 s
5016,000,000 events12,000 s
5626,000,000 events10,700 s
6316,000,000 events9,510 s
7086,000,000 events8,480 s
7946,000,000 events7,550 s
8916,000,000 events6,730 s
1,0006,000,000 events6,000 s
1,1206,000,000 events5,350 s
1,2606,000,000 events4,770 s
1,4106,000,000 events4,250 s
1,5806,000,000 events3,790 s
1,7806,000,000 events3,370 s
2,0006,000,000 events3,010 s
2,2406,000,000 events2,680 s
2,5106,000,000 events2,390 s
2,8206,000,000 events2,130 s
3,1606,000,000 events1,900 s
3,5506,000,000 events1,690 s
3,9806,000,000 events1,510 s
4,4706,000,000 events1,340 s
5,0106,000,000 events1,200 s
5,6206,000,000 events1,070 s
6,3106,000,000 events951 s
7,0806,000,000 events848 s
7,9406,000,000 events755 s
8,9106,000,000 events673 s
10K6,000,000 events600 s
11.2K6,000,000 events535 s
12.6K6,000,000 events477 s
14.1K6,000,000 events425 s
15.8K6,000,000 events379 s
17.8K6,000,000 events337 s
20K6,000,000 events301 s
22.4K6,000,000 events268 s
25.1K6,000,000 events239 s
28.2K6,000,000 events213 s
31.6K6,000,000 events190 s
35.5K6,000,000 events169 s
39.8K6,000,000 events151 s
44.7K6,000,000 events134 s
50.1K6,000,000 events120 s
56.2K6,000,000 events107 s
63.1K6,000,000 events95.1 s
70.8K6,000,000 events84.8 s
79.4K6,000,000 events75.5 s
89.1K6,000,000 events67.3 s
100K6,000,000 events60 s

Worked examples, recomputed

Every number the mechanisms quote for this relationship is recomputed from it, so none of them disagrees with it.

Where it appears

Each mechanism states it in its own names. The general symbol each name stands for is shown with it.